Wage growth: what to expect in 2019

Рост зарплат: чего ждать в 2019 году

How much to increase wages in Ukraine

The average nominal wage in December of 2018 for the first time exceeded 10 thousand and amounted at the end of month 10 573 UAH. It turns out that during the year the average salary grew by 20.5%, while inflation was at the level of 9.8%.

If to speak about separate kinds of economic activities, traditionally the highest average salary for financiers and insurers – 18 088 UAH in December. Moreover, their salaries have grown more than the national average: 21.4%. On the second place in terms of wages – public administration and defence 17 192 UAH in December of 2018, +19% for the year. Third place in the level of wages continue to hold workers in the fields of information and communication, which includes and programmers. According to gosstat, in December 2018, average wages have amounted to 15 518 UAH. Pon survey of the IT sector, their average salary in the autumn of last year has already reached $ 1,900, or more than 50 thousand UAH.

The lowest average salary in 2018 counted caterers (the column “Temporary accommodation and food”) – 6801 UAH, for the year the increase amounted to only 15.7 per cent. On the second place from the end – the doctors and social workers, the average salary in December amounted to UAH 7340 (and accrued, i.e., without taxes). A year wages in the industry rose by 19%.

Promise about 10 thousand, was achieved

That in 2018 the average salary in Ukraine will increase to 10 thousand hryvnias, at the time, said Prime Minister Vladimir Groisman, Vice-Prime Minister Pavlo Rozenko, President Petro Poroshenko and others. As you can see, these predictions have come true, although it was originally expected that the target of 10 thousand could be reached in October-November.

However, in the fall, many had doubts that the promised figure at all manage to get to the end of the year. The average salary for November, according to state statistics, was nearly one and a half thousand less than the December – 9161 UAH.

However December is an unusual month in terms of salaries. Due to the fact that many companies are trying to please the staff the money before the holidays and several shift schedules of payments, and also due to the fact that at the end of the year usually arrive just in time award, the “thirteenth salary” and other material goods, the rate of wages for the month of December is much higher than for other months. Then, in January, usually followed by a noticeable “lag” indicators, so to beat the December record is often possible only in the spring and then to summer. For example, increased accrued wages for December 2016 was achieved in March 2017, the index for December 2017 in June 2018.

Рост зарплат: чего ждать в 2019 году

“Sinking” of the January salary in 2017, compared to December of 2016 was 7.2%, January 2018, compared to December 2017 – 12,14%. If the salary in January 2019 will be at least 10% less than December – then we will start with an indicator of average salaries, which will again be below 10 thousand.

In 2019 salaries decided not to raise?

This question arises when comparing the December statistics on wages and projections of politicians in 2019.

So, on the eve of the New year, Prime Minister Vladimir Greiman stated that the average salary in 2019 will rise to… 10.5 thousand UAH. And if the economy will do well, even more, the Prime Minister said.

Recall that 10.5 thousand UAH – that was the average salary in December. Even more – 10 573 UAH. Does this mean that Ukrainians should not count on a substantial raise this year?

In recent years the average salary has increased by no less than 2000 UAH per year. Experts believe that in 2019 , the average salary will grow by 15-17%, and under favorable economic conditions and by 20-25%. In absolute terms, this would mean that by the end of the year the average accrued salary in Ukraine should be not less than 12.2 thousand UAH. And according to optimistic forecasts – all 13 thousand.

At the same time, the NBU predicts that wage growth in 2019 will be reduced compared to the previous year. A recent report by the NBU on financial stability for the 2018 notes: “Competing for employees, companies were forced to significantly raise the wages. Most personnel costs grew in the transportation industry, light industry, machine building, somewhat less in agriculture and the production of building materials. In 2019, the NBU expects a reduction in the intensity of labour migration that will slow the increase of salaries”.

Also, the NBU mention other reasons for which to expect active growth of wages in 2019 is not necessary. “In 2019, may slow real income due to low GDP growth rates and tight fiscal policy will limit the growth of salaries in budgetary sphere”, – stated in the same report of the NBU.

Source: segodnya.ua