Ukraine is the worst. The report of the Munich conference

Украине хуже всех. Доклад Мюнхенской конференции

The era of competition of the superpowers

On the eve of the Munich security conference, where on February 15-17 will bring together politicians, diplomats and experts from around the world to discuss international relations, was published analytical report on the advent of competition of the superpowers.

The rivalry between the countries affected, including conflicts and crises, including – in Ukraine, which is growing geopolitical confrontation between the West and Russia, analysts say Munich conference. Корреспондент.net tells details.

The most important in 50 years conference

On Friday 15 February in the capital of Bavaria will open an international security conference is the major international event after the UN Genassamblei. In the 55th time in Munich will be the “center of the world” and a platform to meet leading politicians, diplomats and experts.

The tone of the event sets published on February 11, analytical report of the Munich Security Report on the situation in world politics. The organizers of the Munich conference published the document as information for consideration in 2015.

The report for 2019, is entitled: the Big puzzle: who will pick up the pieces? According to its authors, a new era of competition of the superpowers – USA, China and Russia (such a procedure in the document – ed.).

“It seems that we are experiencing a shift in the foundations of international order,” – says the Chairman of the conference Wolfgang Ischinger.

He believes that the Munich security conference this year will be “the biggest and most important” in its history, despite the refusal from the participation of several senior politicians.

To Munich will arrive in a total of 600 experts in the field of security policy, including 35 heads of state and government and 80 Ministers of defense and foreign Affairs.

Participation in the conference refused, the President of France Emmanuel macron and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. While Netanyahu will visit organized by the U.S.-Polish security conference in the middle East, held in Warsaw on 13-14 February 2019.

The United States will be represented by Vice-President Mike Pence, acting Minister of defense Patrick Shanahan, speaker of the house of representatives Nancy Pelosi, and trump’s daughter Ivanka and her husband Jared Kushner, who occupies the position of Advisor to the President.

Ukraine will be represented by President Petro Poroshenko. On the sidelines of the conference he intends to publish data on the Kremlin’s meddling in Ukrainian elections. Russia will be represented by foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

The rivalry of the superpowers is the main threat to the world

In his opening remarks of the report Ischinger noted that individual parts of the “big puzzle” clearly visible is a “great power” of the United States, China and Russia. But how to organize their participation the future world order is not clear.

“When you look at the current state of Affairs in international relations, it is difficult to avoid the feeling that we are not just witnesses to a succession of small and large crises in the world, but that the problem is much more fundamental. We rather are in a period when the elements of the traditional international order shuffled,” – said in his letter.

Between the US (and their suzikami), China and Russia entered a new period of competitive struggle

“Given the prevailing strategic vision of peace in Washington, Beijing and Moscow, the expectations of a new era of competition of great powers, it seems, turns into a self-fulfilling prophecy. If everyone is preparing for a hostile world, its development is almost predefined”, – stated in the report.

In the first Chapter of the report the authors consider more variables of the new world order: the competition between China and the United States, and the weakening of the US as global hegemon, and the possible strengthening of the role of such countries as Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the UK.

The main struggle in the coming years will be between USA, Russia and China, according to the report. In the long term, China for the United States is a more serious problem, and Russia – more urgent, the report says.

“In contrast to China’s long-term prospects of Moscow as a geopolitical opponent of the United States seem not very promising,” – noted experts.

All this against the background of conflicts and crises in the world, ten most important, according to the drafters of the document looks like this:

  • Yemen
  • Afghanistan
  • the differences between the US and China
  • the confrontation between Saudi Arabia, USA, Israel and Iran
  • Syria
  • Nigeria
  • South Sudan
  • Cameroon
  • Ukraine
  • Venezuela

The EU is “particularly ill-prepared for a new era of rivalry between the great powers,” the report said. Europe is taking its first tentative steps towards independence from the United States, for example, considering the creation of its own common army, but still relies on the assistance and protection of America.

The main conclusion of the main part of the report: “the period after the end of the cold war and the associated universal optimism is over”, but what will the new world order is not clear. In any case, the authors suggest, the world is waiting for “a long period of instability and uncertainty”.

Ukraine: the end of the war in sight

The war in Ukraine continues to cletit and no end in sight, it stirs up and strengthens geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the Western powers. The latest escalation – the sea of Azov, where he faced the Russian and Ukrainian ships and Russia has actually blocked access to the Kerch Strait, the report said.

Ukraine at the Munich report also referred to as the “aggrieved” by the destruction of the order in Europe established after the end of the cold war.

A section on Eastern Europe together in one group Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus and Moldova, calling them the region of instability. The reason is that they have not received a clear prospect of joining NATO and the EU, so their future and security is vague.

The report cites a survey that showed that the majority of Ukrainian citizens believe that against the backdrop of rising tensions between Russia and the West a probable new war in Europe. With this assessment I fully agree, 33 per cent of Ukrainian respondents, another 27 percent partially agree.

With more than half of Ukrainians (47% fully and 16% partly) that the crisis in Ukraine is vnutrenne Affairs and decide from also have their own.

These findings are in contrast to surveys conducted in Ukraine, informed the Ukrainian sociologists. They show that 63 to 71 percent of Ukrainians believe that Russia is the aggressor in the conflict in the Donbas and the Crimea.

At the same time, is less likely, according to a survey from the Munich report, the crisis is considered an internal affair of Ukraine the French and Germans: 12 and 19 percent agree with this statement completely, 23 and 21 partially.

Enter the Donbass UN peacekeeping mission fully supports 32 percent Ukrainians, 13% Russians and about 20 percent of respondents in Central and Western Europe.

The extension of sanctions against Russia enjoys the support of majority of Ukrainians: 54 percent agree with that idea fully and 12 partly. In Germany the figure was the lowest of the selected countries: 6 and 11 percent, respectively. In France it’s twice the size: there are tougher punitive measures against Russia fully supported by 12 per cent and 23 per cent partially.

Note that on 1 November last year, according to the results of the two-day meeting of the Core group of the Munich security conference, held in Minsk, the question of how necessary the change of format of negotiations on Ukraine and the involvement of the United States, Ischinger said that his 40-year diplomatic experience suggests that intractable conflicts are different, the main thing – political will. However, he is convinced that the US and the EU as a whole should be at the negotiating table.