The tension in the Azov and Black seas will only increase, past the Politek.
It anticipate in a joint report of the US intelligence agencies, the West understands that the Russians mass power in Crimea – and how to respond to Russia – they know everything but in reality nobody will risk. Ukrainians to “Wake up” and not to have any illusions about Russia, only sober training and building up his weapons in the waters of the Black and Azov seas.
This writes the journalist Mikhail Samus:
“The situation in the Black and Azov seas is indeed developing in a negative direction, I agree with the assessments of us intelligence. Russia is now completely dominates in this region, feeling full impunity. Military means it controls the Black and Azov seas and the Kerch Strait.
Unfortunately, Ukraine and NATO now can’t change the balance in their favor, because the naval forces of Ukraine and NATO countries — Romania and Bulgaria — are not able to counter Russian capabilities. Russia has concentrated in the Crimea, a powerful naval, missile and aviation groupings which military tools can easily affect the situation in the region.”
Russia, feeling of own impunity, may resort to radical action, according to the author:
“The Russians are capable of action and will undertake to demonstrate that the sea of Azov under Russian control, and the Kerch Strait are de facto controlled by Russia. And, of course, any steps of Ukraine to demonstrate that, under international law, Crimea is Ukrainian, and the Kerch Strait, according to the agreement of 2003 and the international law of the sea, is the Strait of Ukrainian-Russian and international — these steps will cause Russia’s desire to continue to show strength. Because the Russians know that neither Ukraine nor NATO is now no real instruments of deterrence of Russia.”
The international political arena are silent, waiting to hush up the conflict between Ukraine and Russia:
“The international community’s response to a clear act of aggression on November 25 against the ships of naval forces of Ukraine shows that the West is now in General not ready to up the ante and trying to freeze the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. He actually puts pressure on Ukraine to recognize de facto that Russia controls the Kerch Strait. At least I do not see any real steps our partners in the West to force Russia to abandon the occupation of the Kerch Strait and the Azov sea. All the talk of sanctions are still talking, “Nord stream-2″ is build, the economic interests of Russia in no way block or destroy”.
The author is confident, yet not “specific attacks on the Russian economy, the tangible and the Russian leadership and the Russian oligarchs, Russia is going to act arrogantly and to demonstrate its superiority in the Black and Azov seas”.
He summed up:
“A way out for Ukraine are obvious: the development of naval forces and missile capabilities, and missile capabilities of the Ukrainian army. This is the only possibility. Personally, I have after the act of aggression of 25 November has no illusions that the international community will help us. Ukraine urgently need to increase our naval force, that is, to change the balance of forces in the Black sea, trying to ensure that NATO started to help to build their Navy and Romania. And if at least Romania and Ukraine will be an effective naval force with missile capabilities, then we can talk about the balance and the pressure on Russia.
Ukraine needs to develop its air and missile capabilities to hit Russia’s desire to use their powerful missile ability against Ukraine.”