Tomos cannot permanently affect the low ratings of the President – experts say. They assume that to win elections Bankova best extraordinary events that can significantly change public opinion and the balance of power in the country, such as conflicts over shrines.
“To bypass the Constitution of Ukraine”
President Petro Poroshenko together with the head of the DNC Epiphany January 11, will visit Volyn region. Expert Alexander Dubinsky notes that this visit will “Tomos tour” in regions of Ukraine. He has published in Facebook, scans of official documents of Volyn regional state administration, which require to ensure the presence of 2420 people to participate in the “festive and ritual action”.
In addition, tasked to bring from the 16 districts of Volyn region 10 participants for the meeting of the President in the Shevchenko theater (only 160 people). As noted by Dubinsky, lists of persons to attend a meeting of Petro Poroshenko and Metropolitan Epiphanios ptsu must be of “local cultural and political elite, members of ATU, deputies of local authorities.”
Expert reports that after the solemn speech of Petro Poroshenko will meet with local leaders of the security service and the police in conducting outreach to transition parishes in ptsu.
Political analyst Alexei Yakubina on this occasion recalled that on 31 December 2018 in Ukraine officially kicked off the election campaign. In his opinion, the President violates the Constitution, actually using in the election campaign of the Church.
“A new structure – ptsu is not recognized by the world Orthodox, besides the Patriarch of Constantinople, but the incumbent relies on this structure during the election campaign. Obviously, this is a new use of the structure to bypass the Constitution of Ukraine in the context of the election campaign”, – said the analyst.
Yakubina added that the involvement of priests in the election campaign split the Ukrainian society. “The fact that politicians got your nose in here and acting President spins this subject is very conflicting. It turns out, the policies in the context of elections-2019, get involved in religious issues, all they see opportunities for the election campaign. Without a doubt, this divides society,” he said.
Recall that the largest denomination in the country – the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) Moscow Patriarchate calls the process of granting Thomas ‘artificial’ and does not recognize the autocephaly. And the strength of the new Church – PCU, approximately half of what statistics, the UOC-MP. So, in ptsu consist of 4.1 thousand clergy. To to 6 thousand temples. And in the UOC there are over 12 thousand existing branches that are 10 of thousands of priests.
The head of the information Department of the UOC-MP, Archbishop Clement stated that the Tomos of autocephaly for the ptsu was signed with “a violation of all canonical Church rules”. In the Russian Orthodox Church said that the document “does not have canonical force,” and the signatory Patriarch Bartholomew “finally tore yourself away from world of Orthodoxy, joining the split”.
The Patriarch of great Antioch and all the East John X condemned the decision of Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople on the granting of autocephaly. And the Primate of the Serbian Orthodox Church Patriarch Irinej, said that the Ukrainian ecclesiastical question should only be solved on a pan-Orthodox Cathedral.
Blogger Vyacheslav was Cecil notes: “the People who started, did not set itself the goal to build a truly independent Church. The goal was at this stage to at least partially recognized by the world Orthodoxy structure, independent from Moscow and hostile to Moscow, which can be used for simple and clear political things. They got everything they wanted”.
“Tomos here as dead a poultice”
Vyacheslav was Cecile predicts that after receiving Thomas, new Church ptsu will be actively used as a marker of “friend or foe”. They say that every politician and ordinary citizen, declaring that he walks not in the PCU, and the UOC will automatically be entered into the category of “wool” with all the ensuing consequences for a career.
“The bottom line is we will receive a deepening division of the country. Now also on the Church grounds,” he said. When this blogger doubts that religious themes will help to win the election President Petro Poroshenko.
“It is wrong to put the question “will it Help Tomos Poroshenko become President?”. Correct – “That all may help Poroshenko to become the President?”. The answer, incidentally, is very simple, will only force majeure” – he sneers.
Recall that the results of a nationwide public opinion poll conducted by the Kiev international Institute of sociology, Petro Poroshenko, under any circumstances, would not vote for 43.7% of the respondents. However, a survey from 19 to 25 December showed growth of President’s rating. According to a study conducted by the Fund Democratic initiatives name Ilka Kucheriv jointly with the Razumkov Center, the rating of Petro Poroshenko is close to that of previous surveys leader – Yulia Tymoshenko (13.8 per cent against 16.1%, respectively). Previously the gap was big, and now it is reported that the growth of the rating of the President, may be associated with the establishment of the PCU and Tomos.
However, Alexei Yakubina believes that it is long – with the New year came into force the new tariffs for heating and hot water (In particular, in Kiev, raised tariffs on heat for households 22.7%). At the same time, the state budget-2019 provides for the reduction of spending on subsidies from 71 to 55 billion UAH.
The analyst notes that the population receives each month the receipts for payment of utilities, and it will lower the President’s rating. “After all the bills people get every month and the closer to the election, it is obvious that every month will mean extra strokes by rating. In the near future the Head of state will try to use the situation with the Church. He’s going with Epiphany travel around the regions. But I’m not sure that this theme will be able to block the situation of socio-economic issues,” – said Alexei Yakubina.
Note that the 23 December elections to the United territorial community (GRT), which involved the Volyn, Zhytomyr, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Poltava, Rivne, Ternopil, Khmelnytskiy, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi region. They “Batkivshchyna” Yulia Tymoshenko held at the local deputies of 421 candidate, and Petro Poroshenko’s Block – only 292.
Vyacheslav was Cecile believes that victory in the presidential election, Bank need extraordinary events that can significantly change public opinion and the balance of power in the country. “Not a big deal, are these developments positive or negative: the battle for Donetsk, martial law or cancel the elections. Almost anything you want. But not like now. Now Peter is going to lose and Tomos here as dead a poultice” – he reasoned.
The analyst Elena Dyachenko believes that the Tomos just gives the start of extraordinary events. She recalled that the outreach Department of the UOC, citing the media reported that the presidential Administration allegedly instructed the leadership of the Museum of Kiev-Pechersk Lavra and the Pochayiv state reserve to prepare lawsuits in the administrative courts about the termination of the Pochayiv and Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra communities of the UOC.
Dyachenko believes that this will lead to conflicts. “Bloody Tomos – the price of the election campaign of the incumbent President”,- she said.