In 2019 may increase tensions between the US and China. Also there will be a further worsening of relations between the US and Russia, Europe and Russia. Ukraine will remain a potentially hot spot. This “Apostrophes” said well-known American diplomat, former Deputy Secretary General of NATO, former US Ambassador to Russia and South Korea, now a distinguished research fellow in Atlantic Council, Alexander Vershbow.
Risks in international politics
A lot of them. Perhaps we should call further tension between the United States and China as the most disturbing in its geopolitical importance. Not optimistic that will solve trade disputes. This year the talks can be broken, which will lead to further exchange of sanctions and mutual pressure. However, more importantly, the expansionism of China is likely to be unimpeded. And we will see the beginning of a long confrontation between the U.S. and China, which can be destabilizing for the whole world.
The second (risk) on my list is the further tension between the United States and Russia, and between Europe and Russia. Ukraine will remain a Central issue, but the situation will continue to be complicated because of the investigation of spectracolor Muller and the potential confusion that may arise because of domestic politics in the United States. And that could lead to further conflict in US relations with Russia.
And all this will happen against the backdrop of continued tension in the transatlantic relationship. For the first two years of the administration of the trump has so many questions: trade, climate change, Iran nuclear deal, Jerusalem… Until now NATO has been separated from it, at least in terms of policy. But I am concerned that there may be problems for U.S. relations with allies in NATO, particularly in 2019.
These are just a few risks this year. In General, experts are very concerned that it will be much harder to maintain international stability than in recent years.
You can call Ukraine as a potential hot spot. It is obvious that Russia will try to use all their tools to interfere in the Ukrainian presidential and parliamentary elections this year. At least to sow confusion and chaos. And as a maximum – to bring to power a more flexible leaders who can be ready to accept the dictates of Russia. I don’t think it’s possible, but they can assume that this can be achieved. This means that Ukraine can expect the escalation of violence, as it was at the end of last year. At the same time, the West is diverted for domestic calls in the US and Europe.
There are many other global challenges – in particular, the danger of cyber warfare. Of attack on the institutions and critical infrastructure will likely become more serious in 2019. Due to the development of technologies to protect all the more difficult.