The presidential election campaign takes place against the background of distrust of Ukrainians to all politicians.
This opinion in comments to the correspondent of ГолосUA expressed by political analyst Alexei Yakubina.
“At the moment of 5 persons who voted or were ready to vote for Poroshenko in the 2014 year, 4 in 5 for him now not ready to vote. This is a huge drop in the rankings. Even if we look at sociology, yet is 7%-10%, but everything is relative. Because the lowest rating of postwar history in the United States was George W. Bush. The support rating was 20%. It was at the end of his second term, then the war in Iraq and corruption, but 20% support, it was considered a disaster. But the incumbent President has less than 10%. And we see that now happening with the rating of Makron, when it dropped to 18%. In France, immediately the political class is perceived that the macron has become a not the legitimate President. Only due to the fact that his approval rating has fallen to these numbers. Therefore, this trend in the elections will continue”, – said the analyst.
According to Alexei Yakubina, the current presidential election campaign takes place against the background of distrust of Ukrainians to the entire political class. So, 50% of Ukrainian citizens someone undecided and the rest against all.
“The President’s electoral weak part in the elections as a lame duck. But along with this there may be some factors, such as the administrative resource. This factor, of course, can not be overestimated, even at all desire of the administrative resource in the attempt to influence the result is a couple of percent. But remember that this campaign still runs on the background of the enormous distrust citizens in General to the entire political class. Because we see that 50% of citizens of Ukraine someone says that he is still undecided, someone disappointed in all”, – the expert believes.
That is, in fact, the candidates will have not only to show off, to compete, to confront, and that is important – to deal with the distrust of himself.
“Roughly speaking, it turns out that all the candidates will have to work not only against, to show off or to compete, but they will have to confront, to contend with the distrust of the population to itself. That is, they will need to overcome this factor of mistrust,” said Yakubina.
He also noted that the factor of distrust and uncertainty gives rise to the so-called “black swans.” That is, the election campaign has a high degree of surprise, therefore, some events may affect the rating of the candidate.
“That is a factor of distrust and uncertainty creates opportunities for what is called “black swans”. Some small events can affect the ranking of a candidate, that is, the campaign has a fairly high degree of surprise. And he is in the election campaign”, – concluded the analyst.
Recall, today, December 31, kicked off the presidential election campaign in Ukraine. It will last 90 days and will end on election day, March 31, 2019.
In the figures the sympathy of survey participants were as follows: Yulia Tymoshenko – 16,1%, Petro Poroshenko – 13,8%, Vladimir Zelensky 8.8% of Yuriy Boyko – 8,4%, Anatoliy Hrytsenko – by 6.8%, Oleg Lyashko – by 6.9%, and Eugene Moore and 3.1%, Alexander Shevchenko and 2.9%, Svyatoslav Vakarchuk and 2.6%, Andriy Sadovy was 2.4%.