The confidence level of the methodology the Ministry of economic development (MEDT), according to which there was a decrease in level of shadow economy is quite low.
Comments about this correspondent of ГолосUA said the President of the Center crisis research Jaroslav Zhalilo.
“It’s all about how to measure the level of shadow economy. It depends on what technique is used. If the standard is an increase in economic activity, an indicator of the level of shadowing should be reduced. Because this technology: compared to the level of consumption of something such as electricity, (or maybe you are a cash method) with the volume of economy. It is clear that if the volume of the economy grows, respectively, the gap between potential and actual consumption is reduced. If we evaluate the data of the Ministry of economy, I can’t not to refute, not confirm. They have the technique, they believe it,” said the economist.
According to J. Zhalilo, the level of reliability of this technique is quite low.
“For example, if you change the level by three percentage points, to talk really about reducing the level of shadowing or enhancement will not be correct. Moreover, as far as I know, they use a combination of several methods and, as a result, this is an average rate. In my subjective opinion, if today we are witnessing economic growth, I do not think that the level of shadowing is decreased. Because economic growth is accompanied by growth in domestic demand. This means that aktiviziruyutsya small economic activity, which in most countries is in a more fixed state. This component was to increase in terms of increasing income, demand and macroeconomic dynamics,” he said.
Recall that the level of shadow economy in Ukraine in the second quarter of 2018 decreased by 1 percentage point (PP) compared to the previous quarter and for the year, a decline of 3 percentage points, said in a published report, Ministry of economic development (MEDT) on the General trends of the shadow economy in Ukraine.