The Kremlin started the war: what this means for Putin

В Кремле началась война: чем это чревато для Путина

What awaits Ukraine

In the Kremlin — another round of struggle for power. Power clans “friends” of Vladimir Putin are fighting for influence and closeness to their leader. The recent failure of the GRU for exposing the poisoners Skipala and inconsistent imposition of sanctions against Ukraine show the uncertainty in the Kremlin.

What does this mean and could shatter Putin’s power — in the material OBOZREVATEL.

Why the Kremlin has begun a “war”?

In an environment of Vladimir Putin there’s always a war for influence. The essence of undercover games of politicians in the Kremlin has described the Russian writer Mikhail Zygar in his book “the Kremlin’s men” in 2015. Since then, the situation has not changed. The main leverage the Kremlin siloviki. On their shoulders rests the whole power of the state machine of Vladimir Putin.

The President of the Russian Federation and “pits” different kinds of force structure, trying to divert attention from himself. However, in 2018 the Russian military and intelligence leadership has suffered a few big defeats.

The first is the failure of the Main intelligence Directorate (GRU) in the case of the poisoning of the family of ex-spy Sergei Skripal in the British city of Salisbury. As a result of informal intelligence wars, won by the intelligence of her Majesty.

The whole world a few months mocked the two negligent poisoners — Alexander Mishkin (Petrov) and Anatoly Caigoy (Ruslan by Bocharovym), who came to Britain “to look at the spire.” The situation was so absurd that the leadership of the GRU began internal investigation.

And in the Kremlin such missteps do not forgive. 22 Nov 2018 “after severe and prolonged illness” he died the chief of the GRU Colonel-General Igor Korobov. On the background of the conflict over intelligence Directorate significantly increased the Federal security service (FSB), headed by Aleksandr Bortnikov.

The second scandal around the head of Regardie Viktor Zolotov. According to the Russian oppositional politician Konstantin Borovoy, after a failed publicity stunt , the law enforcers remained dissatisfied with his activity.

The fact that gold became involved in the investigation, the Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who discovered large-scale fraud in the procurement of food for the internal troops of the Russian Federation. Replying to the attack in Bulk, gold recorded a video message in which he called opposition to the match and promised to make it a “juicy steak”. In the network immediately ridiculed gangster leanings of the head of Regardie straight from the 90s.

“Of course, gold itself has caused serious damage. If he had not made the issue public, it could disappear by itself, as many other plums using Bulk — up against Medvedev and other officials. But gold took this lure out into the public space and received in full measure,” — said Borovoy.

What does it mean

The war between the groups of influence in Russia, there is always. In assessing these conflicts, you should pay attention to particular clans: the Rotenberg Sechin, Kovalchuk and others. Russian opposition leader Olga Kurnosova, who previously studied in detail the confrontation of local elites, and intelligence says that now in Russia there is a struggle for the future of Putin’s successor.

“There are two options of life after 2024 (the end of the presidential term of Vladimir Putin. — Ed.). First — the nomination of a successor, who would concentrate all power in his hands. The second is the continuation of Putin’s tenure until 2030. In this regard, the Kremlin is going undercover game. If you previously favorite was Dmitry Medvedev, now the leaders had escaped, the mayor of Moscow Sergey Sobyanin”, — told the OBOZREVATEL Kurnosova.

“Attack” on Sobyanin began in the beginning of 2018, when Moscow people began to block the passage of garbage trucks. The fact that the last time the garbage was taken to the edge, contaminating the local villages and towns. The issue has been raised in Russian and foreign media.

Regarding intelligence, the championship, according to Kurnosova, still belongs to the GRU. Despite the failures of 2018, is the Agency fully controls the situation.

Their independence trying to show, and the Prime Minister of the country Dmitry Medvedev. Ukrainian journalist Roman Tsymbalyuk sure that new year’s eve imposing sanctions in respect of Ukraine testifies to the differences between Putin and Medvedev.

However, what will be the situation by 2024, it is difficult to predict. All depends on the economic stability of Russia, and from external factors. Probably, the accumulation of problems, the situation will change in favor of a candidate.

As reflected in the Ukraine

In the current situation Ukraine is peace in the Donbas. Paradoxically, but the situation in the Kremlin largely depends on peace in Ukraine itself. In the event of coming to power in Russia, the militant wing politicians, the so-called “hawks”, it is difficult to predict the development of the situation in the East.

However, to expect any deterioration is not worth it. Overall, the situation suits the ruling elite in Russia.

The Donbass remains a hot spot, Ukraine actually does not affect the occupied territories, but any large-scale hostilities there. Overall, the project “new Russia” has failed. Now the main task for Putin and Co. — to impose its plan on conflict settlement and de jure, to seek entry of “L/DNR” in Ukraine on his terms.