Olivier ahead of state statistics Committee: In the New year with a new inflation

Оливье обгоняет Госстат: В Новый год - с новой инфляцией

Official communiques about the level of inflation and economic growth do not correspond to the real situation, economists say. They ascertain the growth of prices, tariffs, shortfalls in the budget and “bring people to the complete impoverishment”.

“The discrepancy can confirm every Ukrainian”

Christmas table has risen by 20% and cost for a family of four in 1 535 UAH. Such calculations are published in the Institute of agricultural Economics . In particular, gala salad (3 lbs) will cost 129,76 UAH, which is 25% more than last year.

Previously, such calculations were published by the Chairman of the Association of retail suppliers Oleksiy Doroshenko. In his study of the cost of the salad has grown by 28%. And 130 hryvnia this salad was worth in 2017. According to Doroshenko, the preparation of 3 kg of salad in 2018 will cost UAH 166,2. During the year, the dish has risen to 36 UAH.

… Made their calculations based on the proportions of the products in the salad recipe. He said. what ingredients has risen in this way: Potatoes – 5, 7 UAH per kg rose to 6, 5 grn. per kg, carrot with UAH 6.4. to 12.1 UAH. onions from UAH 5 to UAH 10.5, boiled sausage with 74.8 UAH per kilogram increased in price to UAH 91.2. Eggs, which cost UAH 23.8.per dozen, now cost at 24.9 UAH. etc.

It is noteworthy that according to the state statistics service, inflation in Ukraine in annual terms (November-2018 November-2017) increased to 10% from 9.5% in October and 8.9% at the end of September.

Experts have long questioned the feasibility of official statistics. Thus, the head of the Committee of economists of Ukraine Andriy Novak says: “the Discrepancy between those figures, voiced by the state statistics service, the real inflation can confirm every Ukrainian, because the prices of goods and services has not increased by 9.5%, and on tens percent.”

Andrew Novak explains that the causes of inflation must be found in the increase of gas prices for industry and households. In addition, the rise in fuel prices. And since the cost of energy lays in the price, the price increase provokes a chain reaction on all goods and services.

Economist Alexander Okhrimenko assessments focused on official statistics. But also predicts the growth of inflation. “Inflation in Ukraine to 2018 will exceed 10%, although initially the government promised only 7%. This is a fairly high inflation, and the end of the year the figure will reach 12%. The cost of products depends on energy prices, which in turn will continue to go up in 2019,” he says.

Recall that in October the government decided to raise the price of gas for the population is 23.5%. From 1 November the price of gas and tariffs for heat and hot water are installed just now. They will come into force after the New year. So, in Kiev to raise tariffs for heat for the population of 22.7%. This was announced at a meeting of the national Commission carrying out the regulation in the energy and utilities (NKREKU).

It should be noted that in October, Prime Minister Vladimir Groisman said that according to government estimates, the gas price hike will lead to growth of tariffs for heat and hot water, but the increase may not exceed 16 percent.

Blogger Vyacheslav Cecile was ironically about this: “the Average percentage growth of tariffs for heat does not exceed the percentage growth in the cost of gas is 23.5%, gleefully reported in the national Commission. It is not clear what to do with the saboteur Groisman”.

Expert on energy issues Valentin Zemlyansky, emphasizes the statement that the price of gas is raised only 23.5% is just a political move, because in 2014, gas prices rose by 1000%. And heating tariffs during this time grew by 1100%.

“Is not supported by the realities of today”

According to the calculations of the Cabinet, the growth of the economy of Ukraine is 11 consecutive quarters. This was stated by Prime Minister Vladimir Groisman during a forum on “New industrialization: the joint action of government and business”, reports a press-service of the government.

“We have 11 consecutive quarters of economic growth. This is a good signal, but we understand that this is not enough to solve historical issues. We can grow at 5-7%. And beneficiary of this growth should be the Ukrainian people,” he said.

The Ministry of economic development and trade (MEDT) published an updated consensus forecast that In 2019, the Ukrainian economy will grow by 3% with an inflation rate of 7.4%.

Say, in 2019 the GDP growth in Ukraine will slow to 3% from 3.1% this year while inflation from 10.1% to 8%. The budget for next year is also based on the forecast of GDP growth of 3% with an inflation rate of 7.4%.

However, the Chairman of the accounts chamber Valery Patskan back in October stated: “the Bill is based on the indicator of real GDP growth to 3%. First, it is less than world growth, this will deepen the backlog of Ukraine from the world. Second, such growth is to be achieved at the expense of internal consumer investment demand, however, is not borne out by the realities of today”.

The head of the accounting chamber of the Parliament stated that this year slowed the growth of real incomes of the population, there is stagnation in the industries that produce consumer demand, decreases the volume of foreign investment.

“In the face of rising gas prices it will be difficult to keep inflation, which the government pledged, at the level of 7.4%”, – he warned. Valery Patskan noted that under such conditions the increase of budget revenues compared with approved for 2018 in the amount provided, primarily due to the increase of prices of imports and devaluation. But the chamber, he said, found high risks of failure in the planned volumes of certain revenues of the state budget next year.

However, the state budget 2018 is also not performed. This was said economist Viktor Skarshevsky. Say, if you calculate the real budget deficit (underfunding) then in the 9 months he was 65 billion, or 9 times more than the official statistics show.

The economist believes that to curb the rising budget deficit helps cutting the expenditure side. “Underfunded almost all major expenditure items. On the basis of the percentage shortfall of the plan, the least priority areas for the government, it’s health (-44% of the plan), economic activity (-32%), primarily agriculture (-39%) and culture (down 31%)” – lists the economist.

Economist Igor garbaruk predicts a further impoverishment of the population under the current configuration of power. He says that the arrears of population for housing and communal services (HCS) is constantly increasing, recently, the growth of debt for utility services increased from 38 million to UAH 39.9 mln UAH. “When we artificially “increase” the price of gas and electricity, we bring the country to collapse,” he says.

According to the expert, the situation can only change, the new government, abolishing the reforms that the government managed to take over the years of his reign. “It’s terrible, how can be had for 4 years to bring people to the total impoverishment?! Now Ukrainians are voting with their feet, EN masse leaving to work in other countries”, – concluded the economist.