Karasev: “the Election campaign Poroshenko began on the day of the announcement of martial law”

В. Карасев: «Избирательная кампания Порошенко началась в день оглашения военного положения»

The Verkhovna Rada adopted the holding of elections in Ukraine on 31 March 2019. The ГолосUA decided to investigate how the introduction of martial law in the country can influence the presidential elections, and asked about this analyst Vadim Karasev.

– Vadim, that may interfere with the presidential elections?

– Presidential elections will not prevent anything. They will. The question is, will they be on March 31. To postpone the election is still possible, but eliminating them is unrealistic. Because the Western partners of the current government will not allow it. Ukraine is not Egypt or any other Asian or African country where the government can rule without elections. For the West the main thing that Ukraine was in Europe and was at war with Russia. Even if there is a threat of disruption of the presidential elections, the main strategic course of Ukraine – Europeanization. In the end, the West is waging a cold war with Russia and believes that in the cold war the Russian Federation can be contained. This part of the task, the West takes over. In particular, sanctions, pressure, proizosla, strengthening NATO. The West sees no point at this stage in the great war between Ukraine and Russia. It is important for the Europeanization and democratization of our country. Without elections it is impossible to achieve. Therefore, the elections in Ukraine will be held. Another thing, on what terms the government will decide to delay.

– How long can be postponed presidential elections?

– Don’t exclude the possibility that the presidential elections to be held closer to the summer. Another thing, the conditions in which they will be held. Most likely, when the militarization of consciousness of citizens. The Ukrainian government does not intend to abolish elections and to fight in a hot war in which it is unclear who will win. Besides, I don’t see now the meaning of the postponement of the elections. Poroshenko and so can take advantage of the monthly military position in order to strengthen its position as the Supreme commander in the campaign. The election campaign of the President began on the day of announcement of martial law. That is, the day when Poroshenko goes more in military camouflage, rather than in a suit.

– Why the President imposed martial law in the country, and whether it was necessary to enter it?

– Martial law is introduced, when there is an act of open aggression. This is what’s not in today. Why raise on its hind legs the whole country, when people do not know how to act. In addition, martial law can be effective only if introduced throughout the territory of the country. However, the martial law will give the current Poroshenko is more likely to be in the second round of presidential elections.

Whether Poroshenko to extend the military situation?

At this stage you do not see a need for Poroshenko. Now, we can confidently predict that it’s coming out in the second round together with Yulia Tymoshenko. In a situation camouflage of the period is not very comfortable and look appropriate in the second round of singers, actors and other mediapersons. All these figures go by the wayside, giving bonuses to Poroshenko as commander in chief. Secondly, Poroshenko still need to break the resistance of all the business and political elites that put on elections, as a means of partial changes and updates in the political landscape. Because the current political trend, and the landscape enters the country to a standstill. Now we need to carry out any maneuver in order not to fall into the funnel of war without a clear and predictable outcome. Elections in Ukraine need not only for a complete change of the landscape, at least for its partial correction.

– A week after the imposition of martial law that has changed in the country?

Began the militarization of public consciousness. The situation in the country will continue to change as will call upon reservists. It’s not the most joyful time for the people will tear away from families, work. The economy, too many strange things going on. While the first result of martial law is whipping up militaristic hysteria in society. The question is, how believe it. How much society wants to get involved in military situation, seeing for the common man threats a full-scale ground aggression. As there are problems with the fact that our government does not have a powerful enough machine and tools to the military situation became, instead of the conditions for the establishment of military discipline and strengthening military-political organization, on the contrary, in the disorganization.

– What are the main implications of martial law

The introduction of martial law in Ukraine carries a number of political consequences. First – changed the format of the political process. Shuffle the cards that change reshapes the electoral map of the election. Second, the militarization of consciousness. Cancel martial law, but the militarization remains.