In 2019 there is a high probability that the Ukrainian economy will stop growing and will slide to zero.
This commentary, ГолосUA said economist Viktor Skarshevsky.
“The IMF has worsened the forecast of Ukrainian economy to 2.7%. This is less than will grow the global economy . This is despite the fact that Ukraine and the rest of the world, and so a huge gap that will increase in 2019. The current year will not be as favorable for Ukraine, as the 2016 and 2017 due to a slowdown in the global economy. In addition, world prices for key Ukrainian export goods will decline. This means a reduction of foreign exchange earnings, pressure on the exchange rate and a stronger devaluation of the national currency and rising inflation. There is the probability of rolling of the Ukrainian economy to zero or even small negative. If there is a global financial crisis, it will lead to a decrease in world prices for raw materials. Ukraine is an open commodity poor country that depends on external and corrections, it will hit our economy” – said Viktor Skarshevsky.
The expert stressed that after a sharp economic decline, Ukraine marking the economic swamp.
“High world prices in the last two years has allowed partially to recover the Ukrainian economy after the fall, which was in the year 2014-2015. This recovery is interrupted either this year or next when the commodity markets will see another correction,” – summarized V. Skarshevsky.
We will remind, the world Bank worsened the forecast of growth of world gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019 from 3% to 2.9%. In Ukraine, according to the forecast of the world Bank, too, GDP is expected to fall from 3.5% to 2.9%. The growth of Ukraine’s economy in 2019 shall not be less than 3%. About this at the government meeting said Prime Minister Vladimir Groisman.