Fitch forecasts on the dollar rate in Ukraine cannot be considered an absolute baseline forecast – the economist

Прогноз Fitch относительно курса доллара в Украине нельзя считать абсолютным базовым прогнозом - экономист   

The probability of Fitch about the growth of the dollar in 2020 to the level of UAH 32,3 not very high.

This was during a press conference in the information Agency “ГолосUA” said Executive Director of the International Fund blazer Oleg Ustenko.

Fitch forecasts (2019, the dollar rate will be 30.7 UAH, and in 2020 will reach UAH 32,3. – Ed.) similar to the extrapolation of the situation in the next two years, said the expert.

O. Ustenko explained that Fitch has built its forecast, based on forecasts trading partners of Ukraine. This forecast is given and the National Bank of Ukraine. In this case, any economic model is a probabilistic estimation.

“The probability of Fitch ratings are not so high as the absolute baseline projection is impossible. Fitch forecasts can be perceived as a reference point,” concluded Oleg Ustenko.

We will remind, the international rating Agency Fitch has predicted the dollar in 2019-2020.

Fitch made the forecast on the dollar for the next two years, as stated in the report on the credit rating of “Naftogaz”.

In 2019, the dollar will amount to UAH 30.7, and in 2020 will reach $ 32.3 USD. By the end of this year, the dollar will remain at the level of 27.4 USD.

 

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