The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine approved the start of payment of subsidy in cash from the March 2019. In turn, President Petro Poroshenko said that the subsidies in the form of cash will begin March 4. The ГолосUA decided to investigate how fast the Ukrainians will be able to get her hands on that money and for what amount they can expect, after asking the co-Chairman of the Fund of energy strategies Dmitry Marunich.
– Dmitry, the Cabinet approved the start of payment of subsidy in cash with Mar… How quickly the Ukrainians will be able to get them?
– Start the monetization of subsidies in March, tied for the elections. A new monetization model proposed by the President Poroshenko to “buy” the votes of Ukrainians. It seems to me that in March, will make every effort to pay citizens money. The more that we are talking only about new subsidiesto. All those who have received a grant before, will continue to receive it in non-cash form, and only part of the subsidies will be paid in cash.
How this experiment will work, will be known only in March. Do not rule out that there may be glitches. Everything is perfect will not work, but some of the people promised money still get.
– How much money will be given to the Ukrainians?
– It was about six billion per month. That is, 1500 thousand UAH – average figure. We all have different grants someone 300 hryvnia, and someone more than 1500 thousand. The money will be transferred to the card account. Subsidiary will have to open them in state banks. Banks will benefit from this, increasing its card base. Apparently, it will “Oschadbank” and “PrivatBank”. After which account will the money be transferred. It is unlikely the funds will give the citizens in his hands.
– Do all subsidiaty have time to go through the process of verification by March, and how it will happen?
– For this you need to understand that the Cabinet has changed the methodology of calculation. I must say that all so simply will not work. It is very difficult to implement in practice, and clearly there will be failures and problems. We have in the stable years of the Cabinet with the labour embodied such difficult decisions, but with the mess that is going on in the country, there will be a lot of issues, risks and problems.
Some of the accounts have time to open by March, some – not. Again, subsidies will grant money only to those who designed them again. There will not be a giant number of people, but only a few hundred thousand across the country. All who did not submit the grant again, will continue to receive in the form of cash.
– What are the deadlines really start monetizing?
– Initially the program of monetization of the subsidy consisted of two stages. The first step is the monetization of subsidies on the level of service providers. The second stage is the monetization of subsidies for individuals. At least six months is necessary in order to work out the mechanism. Plus there are a number of issues that are not solved even in six months. In particular, how to control the spending of money. These questions, in principle, unsolvable. Suppose if people stop paying for communal and begin to spend the money on the products, in the Cabinet can think about the cancellation of this project. Although ahead of the elections and it is unclear who will be at the helm of the country. I do not exclude that the government may try to amend the mechanism for granting housing subsidies to the population in the form of cash, if you see that their idea is beginning to fail.
– Whether a reduction in the number of subsidianes with monetization?
– No. Criteria for granting subsidies have not changed. The launch of monetization of subsidies has only one goal – to bribe people before elections. Cut subsidies by other methods. The Cabinet has reduced the rate of heat consumption, and tightened criteria. This led to their curtailment. Launch monetization – trying to give people cash on hand. To play a sly game before the election. The reduction in the number of subsidianes after the start of monetization is only possible in case if the Cabinet of Ministers adopted additional decisions, which have tightened subsidies. See how after the start to change the level of payments for utilities, it will increase, decrease or remain the same. At best it will be clear by may.
– Why in Ukraine a record-payment for communal, which has already exceeded $ 55 billion, and will it help monetization to correct this situation?
– There is a risk that after the start of the monetization of people will pay less. If earlier grants were inanimate money and these protocols cover the difference in tariffs, the subsidy in cash increases the risks of defaults, which in turn grow due to the increase in utility tariffs. Always after the next raising of tariffs for gas and heat decreases the level of payments. If this trend persist, the monetization could make it worse. If the debts for communal services will grow rapidly, then collapsing the whole system. People in public institutions are not just go to work and will cease to supply services.