2019 Ukraine will be most severe for the period of 2014 when he was signed on loan program stand-by with IMF will have to start paying foreign debts in amounts much larger than it was previously. And there is a risk that Ukraine may refuse from payment of foreign debts.
This was during the program “Right to vote” said a financial analyst, economist Alex Kush.
“Ukraine should stand day and night to hold out. 2019 will be challenging enough, considering the whole volume of the repayment of external debt, which is about $ 10 billion, is about 30% of state budget revenues. Although the conditions of debt restructuring to the IMF, we have not begun even the basic amount of debt to pay interest only until you pay for. And all payments, which were until 2019, it was just a sophomoric in comparison with what awaits us in 2019 It will be paid in terms of parliamentary and presidential elections, as actions under a hail of heavy icicles. And when the election will hold and all will comfortably sit in their seats, no one will think about the alignment of the balance of payments, which is seeking the IMF. There will be a new government and a new President,” – said the expert.
He said that after 2019 in any case, experts of the International monetary Fund will have to sit down at the negotiating table with a different government and a different President.
“And those Ukrainian politicians, who are not brought to the final payment of the debt by the end of 2019, will not be held responsible for it. And if Ukraine defaults, they say they did everything they could and carried out the restructuring. That is the burden of debt repayment will fall on the new government. And they are on the wave of success after the election can say: and let us, in Iceland, refuse to pay the external debt”, – said A. Kusch.
The expert explained: Iceland by 2007 had accumulated large external debts and the decision was made not to pay. At the same time, at the legislative level in Iceland after 2007 consolidated legal norm to accumulate external debt.
According to A. the feast of tabernacles in 2018 for IMF it is crucial that Ukraine does not refuse from further cooperation.
“It is important for IMF to Ukraine will not come loose from the spinner. The Fund is a collaboration need more than Ukraine. And if someone from the Ukrainian politicians come to mind the so-called “Icelandic” scenario, when the country refused to pay foreign debts, and created the people’s Constitution of Iceland, which prohibits to accumulate foreign debt and for IMF it will be a nightmare for a lender. But still will give Ukraine as much as you need to pass peak payments in 2019. They’ll give us 20-30% of what we can repay,” says the analyst.
Earlier it was reported that in the period from 4 to 9 November, a team consisting of several experts of the International monetary Fund will visit Kiev for consultations on the draft budget for the year 2019. On Saturday said the IMF resident representative in Ukraine Jost Longman wrote EP.
“At the request of the authorities, a team consisting of a number of IMF experts will visit Kyiv in the period from 4 to 9 November for consultations on the draft budget for 2019 in the context of the recent agreements at the mission level of the Fund,” he said.
According to the Prime Minister of Ukraine Vladimir Groisman, the draft state budget of Ukraine for the year 2019 will be accepted until 21 December.