The economist about the deterioration of growth forecast for Ukrainian GDP: it could be related to the increase in oil prices

Экономист об ухудшении прогноза по росту украинского ВВП: это может быть связанно с ростом цен на нефть

The fact that the economy of Ukraine has lowered the forecast on GDP in 2018, may be associated with increasing oil prices.

Comments about this correspondent of ГолосUA said Boris Kushniruk.

“There are factors that definitely cause problems, for example, increasing the price of oil. For Ukraine, this means growth not only oil prices, but oil products, which means that we will spend more and create less. This may be a factor. The prices for other commodities such as metals and agricultural products, they don’t have that growth,” the economist said.

According to Boris Kushniruk, because it can be a factor that is critical will reduce GDP.

“As for the forecast, the GDP is very “tricky”. His calculation significantly depends on the model of calculation of the rate of inflation. And even then, within those methods, which they have, there is the possibility (not even always on purpose) incorrectly estimate of GDP,” he said.

Recall, the experts downgraded the GDP growth forecast from 3.2% to 3.1% in 2018, according to the consensus forecast organized by the Ministry of economic development and trade.
This is stated in the message of Ministry of Economics. According to the Ministry, Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2018 is expected at 3.1% inflation rate (December to December) of 9.5%.
Thus in 2019, GDP growth will slow to 3.0% with an inflation rate of 7.4%. In addition, in 2020-2021 years expects economic growth to 3.1% and 3.9% (previously forecasted a growth of 3.3% and 4%, respectively).
However, experts expect the depreciation of the hryvnia by the end of this year to 29.6 UAH/USD by the end of 2019 – to 30.6 UAH/USD in 2020 is 33.2 UAH/USD, and in 2021 – 33,2 UAH/USD.

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