The expert from the Brookings institution Michael O’hanlon examines military innovations and predicts a technological revolution as an Advisor to the CIA. His report “the Forecast of changes in military technology in 2020-2040 years” will help to understand how to change the army in the future.
It is reported by the Tech.
The hypothesis O Hanlon is that 20 years is long enough to provide an objective picture of the future. Because many defense systems do not develop for decades, it is easy to appreciate how the world might look in 20 years from the perspective of a deployed military technology.
Military development should be broken down into individual categories, and then to explore likely future changes. Only O’hanlon have identified 29 categories of different technologies. And his goal is to answer the question in which areas the pace of change will be most rapid over the next 20 years compared to the other. First, is computers and robotics.
Seven categories of technology will likely also undergo changes in chemical sensors, radio communications, laser communications, RF weapons, non-lethal biological weapons. The remaining 19 categories of key military technologies, including touch technology or major components of weapons platforms, such as ground combat vehicles, aircraft, ships and missiles are likely to grow only at a moderate pace.
The computer industry will maintain a trend of rapid development. “Moore’s law”, which States that the capacity and speed of computers doubles every 18-24 months, maybe, and cease to function, but rapid progress is likely to continue.
The U.S. Department of defense increased its total annual expenses on AI, big data, quantum computing, and related efforts with $5.6 billion to $7.4 billion between 2012 and 2017.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is mainly computers, which are trained using a process of trial and error. Such systems recognize the rocket in the photos or people in the crowd — for example, the Pentagon project Maven. In the future, such systems will to accurately predict events.
Largely thanks to the computer revolution robotics will continue its rapid development. Today the possible self-learning vehicle. And soon the number of such devices will be produced for specific military purposes. Vice-Chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, General Paul Selva said recently that the United States will need approximately ten years to build an Autonomous robot able to decide when to shoot and who to kill.