If the IMF will give Ukraine the next tranche, there will be produced the fourth revision of the cooperation program with the Fund for the fifth tranche. But for a tranche we need to the draft budget-2019 arranged by the IMF.
The correspondent of ГолосUA said economist Viktor Skarshevsky.
In Ukraine in September was a technical mission of the International monetary Fund, which takes no action, the economist noted. Decisions are made by the Board of Directors after the revision of the cooperation program with the IMF. If we will be granted the next tranche, there will be produced the fourth revision of the cooperation program with the International monetary Fund for the fifth tranche.
“The IMF now switched to this tactic, as the story of the of Ostap Bender – the chairs in the morning, in the evening money, in the evening chairs, in the morning money. That is, they want to look at the actions of the government and authorities in General” – said Viktor Skarshevsky.
The economist added that the IMF is interested in two indicators. First – how much will be raised tariffs for natural gas. This commitment is about bringing gas prices for the population to import parity, the government took another year and a half ago – in April 2017. But the year and a half it did nothing, so the IMF has no confidence that the Ukrainian government this time will.
The second point is, of course, the draft budget for next year. It needs the IMF fully satisfied, because there is a reduction in social spending, freezing wages, low growth in both income and expenditure – about 10%. The main indicator of interest to the international monetary Fund, is the budget deficit. It is smaller than 2.3% (2,26%). It’s all in the framework of the Memorandum, which Ukraine has signed, including the recent Memorandum of March 2017.
“So far all the budget figures for next year the IMF is satisfied. I would place the IMF has experienced that before the second reading of the draft budget will be wildly inflated income and expenses budget, because, first, no resources, and secondly, if you look at the experience of last year, between the first and the second reading was increased both revenues and expenses by 5% or even slightly less,” – said the economist.
V. Skarshevsky added that this year, most likely, it will happen again. This plus 50-70 million UAH as for the revenue and on the expenditure side, which the deputies will be able to bargain for themselves. They will review the macroeconomic indicators, e.g., inflation – as it was last year. Will not be 7.4%, while 8 and a half. All these moments will give a possibility to nominally increase GDP, budget revenues.
“The budget deficit they will leave the untouchables to 2.5%, but not more than 2.5% is by far. Here, rather, will be a political decision. Budget process the schedule of such budget shall make before December 1”, – summed up V. Skarshevsky.