The 100th anniversary of the end of World war i. Which countries exposed to armed conflict? – news ZIK.UA

100-річчя завершення І Світової війни. Які країни схильні до збройних конфліктів? – новини ZIK.UA

Democracy and peace – concepts are related, but the relationship between them is quite complicated.

This is stated in the study of The Economist.

When the First world war ended on 11 November 1918, Prime Minister David Lloyd George told Parliament: “I hope that we can say with certainty that on this memorable morning ended all wars”. History proved he was wrong. However, after 100 years, the world has become by far much more peaceful. After 2000, every year in the fighting were killed less than one person per 100,000 people, which is 1/6 of the figure 1950-2000 and 1/5 of the figure 1900-1950 years. Why?

The simplest explanation for this is the advent of nuclear weapons, which impedes large States from fighting with each other. However, the number of wars between non-nuclear States also declined. The reason for this may be the spread of democracy and international norms. Bruce, Russett and John All found that democratic countries that traded and belong to many international organizations, rarely are fighting with each other than authoritarian, isolated state.

Edition of the Economist has analysed all the international and civil wars since 1900, as well as wealth and the level of democratization of the warring parties. It took into account all the conflicts in which participated the national army, and which was annually killed at least 100 people, without taking into account the number of deaths from terrorism, massacres of civilians outside of military action, starvation and disease.

Data indicate a strong relationship between democracy and peace, with the exception of some countries. (The United States was quite warlike, and their democracy has not prevented the emergence of a civil war of 1861, which claimed more American lives than any other armed conflict). Countries most prone to war, is neither autocracies nor democracies are somewhere in the middle. Similar, countries with average incomes more militant than very poor or very rich countries.

What causes a feud between these States? To wage war is expensive, and the citizens that live under tyranny, trying all possible ways to organize an uprising. Some studies indicate that civil wars often occur after an unexpected mode changes causing the instability. Perhaps some moderate form of political competition or wealth contribute to the beginning of the armed conflict. All this explains why the blood war, since 1900, has shifted from Europe, Asia, the middle East and Africa. If partial democracy is associated with conflicts, the recent deterioration of the political situation in countries such as Turkey, looks even more menacing.

However, even partial democracy in General saves lives, as empires and dictators are more likely samarati hunger and blood to deal with his subjects. Since 1900, the year, artificially created famines and genocides have killed 250 million people – five times more than war.

The English translation of Oksana Vergeles, IA ZIK

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