The visit of the IMF mission ended without a loan. Meanwhile, there were reports that Washington allegedly began the investigation of the expenditure of funds allocated to Ukraine, and U.S. military aid was less than last year. Experts doubt that the IMF loan will appear before the election.
“IMF loans – this is money for the government”
Permanent representative of the International monetary Fund in Ukraine Jost Longman made a statement on the results of the mission’s visit to Ukraine. “Discussions continue,” he said.
The IMF mission from 6 to 19 September and discussed with the Ukrainian government the terms of the tranche 1.9 billion. According to media reports, the Fund’s experts demanded that the state budget for next year submitted by the government to the Parliament on 15 September were adopted without significant changes.
It should be noted that the IMF, whose headquarters is in Washington, although considered a specialized branch of the UN, controlled by the US government. This country has the highest number of votes in the Fund.
And the United States began an investigation of theft of funds allocated by the us government and the IMF to support countries with “nascent democracy.” About this, citing its own sources, said Facebook lawyer Andrey Smirnov.
According to him, the Federal court in Washington, referred to pre-trial inspection and verification of financial documentation in respect of the persons involved in the theft of public funds, States and organized crime, the traffic of funds derived through the sham of government support programs.
“We are talking about the tools of the US Federal budget and the funds allocated in the framework of target program of support of the IMF to countries with emerging democracy. The organizers are from Ukraine – Petro Oleksiyovych Poroshenko,” wrote the lawyer on August 19.
Allegedly, on the case file are resolution of the Vice-President of the USA Mike Pence and Secretary of state Mike Pompeo. Period check of Federal laws could take two months. Then the materials will return to the court, and the case will be considered on the merits.
On 18 September the US President, Donald trump declared that the United States is no longer going to impose sanctions on Western companies that are involved in the construction of “Nord stream – 2”, being built to bypass Ukraine.
Anyway, the US Senate approved the draft of the Pentagon budget in 2019, which provides for the allocation of military assistance to Ukraine at $ 250 million (for comparison: in 2018, the United States has provided Ukraine with $ 350 million. for defense purposes).
Blogger Alexander Dubinsky writes: “trump has signed the US defence budget in the amount of 717 billion dollars, of which Ukraine is highlighted as much as 250 million, or 0,035%.
This figure is about the level of trust the United States to the Ukrainian authorities. And about priorities. The powerful defence system of Ukraine is not interested in American – the conflict can subside. And then it will be difficult to enter against Russia sanctions. What will happen to Ukraine? 0,035%. Just remember this number”.
Experts doubt that the IMF did allocate money. “Typically, IMF does not provide loans before the election, there is an unwritten rule,” notes the political expert Nikolay Spiridonov.
“The IMF has a standard set of requirements and, in fact, any Ukrainian government usually goes to these demands, because, roughly speaking, the IMF loans is their money,” – says the analyst.
There’s nowhere to retreat
During the negotiations with the IMF the head of Board NAK “Naftogaz of Ukraine” Andrey KOBOLEV announced a gradual increase in gas prices to import parity level.
Co-chair of the energy strategies Foundation Dmytro Marunych believes that this will lead to a drastic revision of tariffs for hot water and heat, the growth rates for other providers of housing services, because the gas companies Teplokommunenergo occupies the largest proportion for other types of services.
“On import parity based formula that the regulation contains, the estimated growth rates of approximately 50% to the current indicators,” – said Dmitry Marunych.
Informed in the National Bank said that its forecasts come from the increase in gas prices for the population by 25% in 2018. And since utility rates are about 20% in the index of consumer inflation, experts, the national Bank forecast inflation of about 1-2% in the near future.
Recall that the government in cooperation with the IMF pledged to abandon the sale of natural gas at a reduced price population, but in summer and autumn 2017, refused to perform this obligation. Now returned to him.
Marunych says: “the Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman is unable to resist further, he must perform the decree, which by the Cabinet of Ministers at the time accepted. It is taken in the framework of the existing Memorandum with the IMF, so there’s nowhere to retreat. It is necessary to perform the undertaken in your time commitments”.
According to experts, as a result of increase in gas prices is expected to accumulation of debts for housing and communal services and a sharp increase in the burden on household budgets.
After the adoption of the state budget and raising gas prices, is expected a new round of negotiations on the format of cooperation with the IMF.
Announced that the parties will refuse to continue the execution of the current program of cooperation EFF “advanced funding,” (which ends in March 2019.) and sign a new Memorandum on the Stand – by program (credit line). It will be designed for 1.5 years and provides 4 to 5 billion dollars from the first tranche of us $ 1.9 billion.
Never had a “overdose”
According to the representative of the President in the Verkhovna Rada Iryna Lutsenko, the replacement program of assistance to Ukraine on the EFF Stand-by indicates the level of confidence of the IMF to Ukraine. They say that the collaboration on this program is usually offered to States that came out of the pre-default state.
However, this program has already provided in 2014. Then instead of the promised $ 17 billion, the Ukrainian government received 4.3 billion. And in 2015, the program was revised.
Under the current program, launched in March 2015, the IMF pledged $ 17.5 billion. But in the framework of this programme the Ukrainian government has only received four tranches for a total amount of 8.7 billion dollars.
The allocation of the fifth tranche of the Fund was postponed. According to Prime Minister Vladimir Groisman, the reason for the delay was the fact that the Verkhovna Rada did not have time to take the necessary for granting the loan bills (e.g. land reform) before the start of the summer holidays.
It is believed that the open sale of land the authority shall in the near future. For dialogue with the Verkhovna Rada already has a corresponding judgment of the ECHR.
The thus obtained IMF money should be given. At the beginning of this year Ukraine’s debt to the IMF amounted to more than $ 12 billion. on the old loans. 31 Aug listed the IMF of 160.3 million dollars on account of repayment of the principal. By the end of this year should bring about 500 million Eurobond and about 580 million in debt service to the IMF.
Economist Viktor Skarshevsky konstatiruet that of the 27 years of independence, Ukraine 16 years in a credit programme with the IMF, and is “professional credit junkie.” “However, thank God, was never “overdose” – he sneers.