The hryvnia falls again, the official rate has already passed for 27 hryvnia for one dollar. Experts scare the dollar and 30 and 40, the National Bank argues that it’s too early to panic.
Usually the hryvnia is stable in the summer and falls in the autumn, but this year the fall began in late July – early August.
For several days the hryvnia against the dollar lost more than 40 cents. The rate has already exceeded 27 hryvnia per dollar.
Correspondent.net understood the reasons for the new hryvnia’s fall and the prospects for the course.
In the National Bank reported that the hryvnia was affected by seasonal factors. Namely, the growth in demand for currency from importers, VAT refunds and payments to non-residents on T-bills (bonds of internal state loans) in UAH.
“The exchange rate fluctuations that we observe the second week are due to a number of factors, in particular, the active conduct of transactions by companies to transfer dividends abroad (since the beginning of July, almost $ 300 million was purchased for this purpose) and the withdrawal of non-residents from OVDPs (since early July the volume of government bonds in non-resident portfolios fell by almost 1.3 billion UAH), “the NBU reported.
“Last week’s exchange rate dynamics was also influenced by significant volumes of VAT refund at the end of the month, which significantly reduces the amount of free sale of currency, as well as an increase in demand for cash currency, in particular from the shadow agricultural sector in connection with the beginning of the season,” the National Bank .
In case of receiving a new tranche from the IMF, the dollar by the end of 2018 will cost in the region of 29 hryvnia, believes Sergey Fursa, a specialist in sales of debt securities of Dragon Capital.
“If there is cooperation with the IMF, the forecast is somewhere around 29 hryvnia per dollar. If it does not, then the forecasts are generally meaningless. NBU made a presentation with the course of 40, somewhere so it may be, and maybe not so, “- said the expert.
According to Fursa, if the IMF does not receive the next tranche from the IMF, the exchange rate will gradually fall off.
“There will not be a specific date. If by September we do not receive a tranche, then this is very bad. If we do not get it in September, then it will be very painful in October, “he said.
Expert on economic issues Vsevolod Stepaniuc also believes that by the end of the year the dollar will rise to 29 hryvnia.
“Excess of demand over supply was just triggered by the actions of the National Bank, which led to the fall of the hryvnia. The NBU knew this very well. By and large, the hryvnia is returning to the indicators of the winter of this year. That is, all this time there was an artificial strengthening of the hryvnia to give money to foreign financial speculators. Now there are no economic prerequisites for strengthening the hryvnia, it will return to those indicators that were in the winter, “Stepaniuc believes.
“We have a dollar rate of 29 hryvnia 30 kopecks in the budget. I expect that by the end of the year the hryvnia will return to the budget indicators, “the expert concluded.
Economist Alexei Kushch points to purely economic prerequisites for the weakening of the hryvnia.
“Ukraine has been in the situation of so-called” raw scissors. “Over the past six months, the price of our raw materials imports – first of all, oil and oil products – is at a fairly high level: this is the upper part of the scissors. decreased “, – explains Kusch.
That is, according to the expert, the outflow of currency was greater than its income.
In this regard, forecasts for the course are disappointing: in September they expect a rate of 27-28 hryvnia / dollar, and in winter, 30-32 hryvnia / dollar.
The inevitability of devaluation is recognized in the NBU itself. In the script developed by the officials (NBU made various miscalculations in case of non-receipt of IMF funds), they do not exclude the depreciation of the rate to UAH 31.8 per dollar by the end of this year. And if the lack of foreign currency makeup from the International Monetary Fund will be accompanied by a fall in metal prices – and at all to 40.8 hryvnia per dollar.
“Consolidated view of bankers – 34 hryvnia per dollar by the end of 2018. This is a very real indicator, given the fact that Ukraine, it seems, will not be able to lure new foreign loans, and the already attracted will have to service and extinguish those already involved, “says financial analyst Vasily Nevmerzhitsky.